Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Current price
23.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23.5%
$22.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. Early resolution occurs only if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; if they do not reach a unanimous consensus, resolution waits for official state certification. The rules clearly state that a candidate must be the official Democratic nominee to count for the Democratic outcome, explicitly excluding candidates who run as independents regardless of any party ties.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A notable condition is that candidates running as independents are excluded from the Democratic option regardless of their party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. The market resolves as No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democrats regardless of any party affiliation. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The market is based on the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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