Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Current price
87.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$136.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining the outcome. Resolution relies on three explicitly named major news organizations—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—requiring all three to agree on the projected winner, with an explicit fallback to official state election certification if they disagree. Party attribution is precisely defined, specifying that candidates must be the official nominees of their respective parties and that independent candidates do not count as party nominees regardless of past affiliations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of any party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if the nominee of another party wins, or if an independent candidate wins. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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