Will the Democrats win the Idaho governor race in 2026?
Current price
1.8¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.8%
$4.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear, standard political resolution rules. It identifies the winning condition as the official nominee of the party winning the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race and explicitly clarifies that candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic option, even if affiliated. Resolution relies on an unambiguous consensus rule across three major designated news networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with official state certification acting as a definitive fallback if a consensus call is not reached. Replacement nominees are explicitly handled, leaving little room for subjective interpretation or unexpected edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are not covered by the Democratic option even if affiliated with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic option regardless of party affiliation. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution is decided by official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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