Will the Republicans win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
Current price
0.95¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$9.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race. The rules explicitly define party affiliation via formal nomination status, noting that independent runs do not count for major parties. The resolution pathway is well-defined: it resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and otherwise defaults strictly to the official state certification. There are no unusual edge clauses or broad discretionary standards.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count toward party options, even if they have party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate represents the Republican Party only if they are the official nominee, and replacement nominees prior to election day will be tracked. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count as Republican or Democrat regardless of party affiliation. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- 2026 election year: — Market end date corresponding to the 2026 gubernatorial election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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