Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Current price
48.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 48.5%
$84.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define party representation by requiring the candidate to be the official party nominee, explicitly excluding independents who may have party affiliations. The outcome is determined by three specific media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race unanimously, with a clear fallback to official state certification if the calls diverge or delay, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count toward either major party option, even if they have an affiliation with that party.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options regardless of party affiliation. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they disagree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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