Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Current price
51.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 51.5%
$119.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome based on the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election and specify that a party win requires the candidate to be the official nominee of that party, explicitly excluding independent runs. Resolution triggers once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if all three do not agree. Georgia election law requires a majority to win, which could necessitate a runoff election and delay the final outcome past November, but the resolution criteria and authority hierarchy are clearly established.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates do not count toward the Democratic or Republican options even if they are affiliated with the party. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution will be determined by the official state certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Year of the Georgia gubernatorial election stated in the rules
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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