Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
Current price
3.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.25%
$3.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and structured resolution rules. It identifies the target race and specifies that candidate party affiliation depends strictly on official party nomination, expressly excluding independent bids. Resolution triggers as soon as three designated major news outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner. In the event of a disagreement or lack of consensus among these outlets, resolution defaults unambiguously to official state election certification. Replacement nominee mechanics are also explicitly handled without creating ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election. It specifically excludes independent candidates from being counted as Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents do not count as Republican, even if affiliated with the party. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing any other party or an independent wins. The race outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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