Will the Republicans win the Colorado governor race in 2026?
Current price
2.3¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.3%
$6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the outcome of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on three major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all calling the race for the same candidate, with official state election certification serving as the explicit fallback if they disagree. Party representation rules are straightforward, specifying that nominees represent their party, independents do not count for major parties even if affiliated, and candidate replacements prior to election day automatically transfer to the official nominee.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are not counted as Republicans even if they have an affiliation with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if the Republican nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Republican options regardless of any party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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