Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
Current price
2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$1.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and comprehensive rules for resolving the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. Party affiliation is explicitly defined based on official nomination, and independent candidacies are clearly excluded from major party options. Replacement nominee handling is specified. Resolution criteria are concrete, relying on a consensus call among three major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a standard fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or timing confusion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. Independent candidates are excluded from representing the Democratic party regardless of any party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement counts. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats regardless of affiliation. The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC determine the winner once all three call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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