Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
Current price
95.35¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.35%
$27K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial race. Resolution relies on three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) unanimously projecting the winner, with a clear fallback to official state certification if they disagree. Party representation rules are explicit, establishing that independent runs do not count for party options and outlining how nominee replacements prior to the election will be handled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. Resolution requires agreement across three specified media outlets before falling back to official state certification.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from the Republican option regardless of affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement represents the party. The market resolves No if another party's candidate or an independent candidate wins. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If they do not all agree, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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