Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a specific, named official authority—the National Electoral Council of Venezuela or its successor—to determine the declared winner of the next popular presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a specific, named official authority—the National Electoral Council of Venezuela or its successor—to determine the declared winner of the next popular presidential election. Clear boundaries and fallback terms are defined: non-electoral appointments do not qualify, an explicit longstop deadline of December 31, 2029 is provided, and if an election occurs without an official winner declared within 365 days, the market resolves to Other.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
69%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Venezuelan presidential election to take place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election. If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.
Market explained
This market measures whether María Corina Machado will win the next Venezuelan presidential election held by December 31, 2029.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado is officially declared the winner of the next Venezuelan presidential election held by December 31, 2029. It resolves to No if a different candidate is declared the winner. Any presidential selection or appointment not made through a popular election does not qualify. The market resolves to Other if no election occurs by the deadline, or if an election takes place but no winner is officially declared within 365 calendar days following election day. The National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority, decides the winner.
Resolution source
National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·