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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close 98¢
Known at
$370.4K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
Not captured
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market has exceptionally clear resolution mechanics tied directly to a single quantitative data source. Resolution relies exclusively on Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair, checking whether the final Low price drops to or below $76,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly state that immediate Yes resolution occurs as soon as the condition is met, and specifically exclude data from other exchanges or trading pairs, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
0¢50¢100¢Oct 28Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 2

Why it moved before close

Up 70 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 7% to 75% as Bitcoin dropped 2.5% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $76,000 much more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 8 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (up), ↑ 82,000 (down), ↓ 74,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:50 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $76,000 or lower between October 26 and November 1, 2026.

How it resolves

The market will resolve immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $76,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. The market relies solely on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart data; prices from other trading pairs, spot markets, or other exchanges are not considered.

Key dates

  • Start of measurement window: — 12:00 AM ET
  • End of measurement window: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle Low prices

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.