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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 76¢
Known at
$47.6K total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
Not captured
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market has very specific and objective resolution rules. It identifies the exact resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT pair), the specific chart interval (1-minute candles), and the precise metric ('Low' price). The time window is clearly bounded with explicit start and end times including the time zone (Eastern Time). It allows for immediate early resolution to Yes if the price threshold is reached, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
0¢50¢100¢00:0007:4015:2023:00
0¢50¢100¢Oct 28Oct 28Oct 29Oct 29
0¢50¢100¢Oct 29Oct 29Oct 29Oct 29

Why it moved before close

Up 60 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 24% to 80% as Bitcoin fell 2.47% on Binance during the hour of the move, bringing the price closer to the $78,000 threshold and making a dip to that level more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (down), ↑ 86,000 (down), ↓ 76,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 23:50 UTC

Down 20 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The price fell from 35% to 13% as the November 2 deadline approached, with time decay the likely driver reducing the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $78,000 before expiry.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −0.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (up), ↑ 86,000 (down), ↓ 76,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC

Up 14 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 23% to 38% as Bitcoin fell 1.34% on Binance during the move hour, making a dip to $78,000 more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −2.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (up), ↑ 86,000 (down), ↓ 76,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) dips to $78,000 or lower between October 26 and November 1. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final Low price equal to or lower than $78,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such candle reaches or drops below that threshold during the specified period. Resolution is determined solely using Binance 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs are excluded.

Key dates

  • Start time: — 12:00 AM ET
  • End time: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.