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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$215.4K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
Not captured
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules clearly define the target price, timezone, and exact time window. Resolution is tied to an explicit, single trading pair on Binance using the high price of any 1-minute candle, leaving essentially no discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
98¢98.5¢99¢99.5¢100¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
0¢50¢100¢Oct 28Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
0¢50¢100¢Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 2

Why it moved before close

Down 81 points · 29 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market price dropped from 71% to 4%, moving in tandem with four related Bitcoin price target markets that also repriced downward during the same period.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +1.1% in the move hour, −0.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (down), ↑ 86,000 (down), ↓ 76,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 15:50 UTC

Down 11 points · 29 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The price fell from 67% to 56% as part of a broader repricing across 4 related target markets for the same event, which all moved downward together.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +1.1% in the move hour, +0.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (down), ↓ 76,000 (down), ↑ 86,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC

Down 50 points · 28 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market fell from 71% to 36% as time decayed toward the November 1 close, reducing the window for Bitcoin to reach $82,000 despite being within roughly 1.1% of the target.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.2% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 09:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $82,000 on the specified Binance trading pair between October 26 and November 1.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price equal to or greater than $82,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $82,000 during this window. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded and will not be considered. Resolution is determined solely by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart data.

Key dates

  • Start of observation window: — 12:00 AM ET on October 26
  • End of observation window: — 11:59 PM ET on November 1

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.