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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$82.9K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
Not captured
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide precise, objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is tied strictly to Binance 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair across a clearly defined timezone window (12:00 AM ET on October 26 to 11:59 PM ET on November 1). Early resolution occurs immediately if the specified $84,000 threshold is reached, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or misinterpretation.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
99.6¢99.7¢99.8¢99.9¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 2
92¢94¢96¢98¢100¢Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2

Why it moved before close

Down 11 points · 29 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 12% to 1% as Bitcoin dropped 1.3% in the hour and 2.9% over 24 hours on Binance, putting the price 9.5% below the $84,000 target and making reaching the level less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 23:00 UTC, 47% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −2.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (up), ↓ 76,000 (up), ↓ 74,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 22:50 UTC

Down 22 points · 29 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The contract fell from 18% to 1% as Bitcoin dropped 4.93% over the 24-hour window, leaving it 8.84% below the $84,000 threshold and making reaching the target level less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 56% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, −4.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (down), ↑ 86,000 (down), ↑ 82,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC

Down 22 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 29% to 7% as Bitcoin dropped 1.34% on Binance in the move hour and 2.87% over 24 hours, making reaching $84,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 63% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −2.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (up), ↓ 78,000 (down), ↑ 86,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:06 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin reaches at least $84,000 on Binance between October 26 and November 1. It relies exclusively on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET records a final High price of $84,000 or higher. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified timeframe. Resolution is determined strictly by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs do not count.

Key dates

  • Start date: — 12:00 AM ET
  • End date: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.