Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Current price
96.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.65%
$823K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving to the outcome in question: OpenAI must not complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The criteria for what constitutes an IPO and how market capitalization is assessed rely on official listing data from the primary stock exchange, with straightforward fallback procedures for abbreviated trading sessions or missing listing page figures.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI will fail to hold an initial public offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026. It is linked to a broader set of market capitalization bracket outcomes for OpenAI's first day of trading.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" if OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading (calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price). If an interruption occurs on the first trading day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price is treated as the first day. Values falling exactly between brackets resolve to the higher range. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest time for OpenAI to hold an IPO to avoid resolving to "No IPO by December 31, 2026"
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page (or another reliable source if not displayed)
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