Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define how market capitalization is calculated using the official closing share price multiplied by outstanding shares on the first day of trading. The resolution source is designated as the primary stock exchange's official listing page, with clear fallback handling for trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions. Additionally, there is an explicit deadline of December 31, 2026, to resolve the market if an IPO does not take place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI achieves a market capitalization of $1.5 trillion or greater at the close of its initial public offering trading day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI's market capitalization is $1.5T or greater based on the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If a trading interruption occurs, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price counts as the first day. The market resolves to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' if no IPO takes place by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest time for an IPO to occur before resolving to No IPO by December 31, 2026
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the relevant figure is not displayed
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