Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined, specifying that market capitalization is calculated by multiplying total outstanding shares by the official closing share price on OpenAI's first day of trading. The primary exchange listing page serves as the designated reference source, with standard fallback provisions. The rules explicitly handle boundary edge cases by assigning values exactly on a threshold to the higher bracket, address potential trading interruptions or shortened sessions, and provide a clear long-stop date of December 31, 2026 if no initial public offering takes place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI achieves a market capitalization between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day, resolving to a specific fallback outcome if no IPO occurs by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if OpenAI's market capitalization at the close of its first day of trading falls between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive of the higher bracket if the value falls exactly on the boundary. The market resolves No if the market capitalization falls outside this range upon completion of its IPO day. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" if no IPO takes place by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization equals the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If trading is interrupted, the official close of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official close is used. Resolution is decided by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest time for the IPO to occur before the market resolves to the fallback outcome.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page (or another reliable source if not displayed)
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