Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Last captured price
0.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$228.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using the closing price and outstanding shares on the primary exchange's official listing page on the first day of trading. Explicit provisions cover potential edge cases, including trading interruptions, exact boundary tie-breaking in favour of the higher bracket, and an expiration date of December 31, 2026, if no initial public offering occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI achieves a market capitalization between $1T and $1.25T at market close on its initial public offering (IPO) day. A specific tie-breaking rule resolves borderline values to the higher bracket, and a separate outcome applies if no IPO occurs before the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day falls between $1T and $1.25T. If the value falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if OpenAI completes an IPO but its market capitalization falls outside this range. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" if no IPO takes place by that date. Resolution is decided by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed. If trading on the first day is interrupted, the official close of the abbreviated session applies; if no close is published, the next trading day with an official close serves as the first day.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest time for an IPO to occur before resolving to the no-IPO outcome.
Resolution source
The primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable
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