Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly specified, defining market capitalization as the product of outstanding shares and the closing price on the first trading day. The primary resolution source is explicitly designated as the official listing page of the primary exchange, with sensible fallbacks for missing figures or trading interruptions. Boundary conditions are addressed with a clear rule assigning exact threshold ties to the higher bracket, and a definitive deadline of December 31, 2026, is established if no initial public offering takes place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI achieves a market capitalization between $750 billion and $1 trillion at the close of its first public trading day. A distinct outcome applies if the company does not complete an IPO before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI's market capitalization—calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on its first trading day—is between $750B and $1T. If the value falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher range. The market resolves to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. In the event of a trading interruption, the official close of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price counts as the first day. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Deadline for OpenAI to complete an IPO before triggering the 'No IPO' resolution.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is unavailable
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