Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization will be calculated using total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the initial trading day. Resolution relies directly on the primary listing exchange's official data, with explicit guidance provided for market interruptions or shortened trading sessions. Boundary edge cases are addressed through a tie-breaking rule assigning exact thresholds to the higher bracket, and a definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2026 prevents open-ended timing disputes if an IPO does not take place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI achieves a market capitalization between $500B and $750B at the close of its initial public offering day. It includes a specific tie-breaking rule resolving to the higher bracket if the valuation falls exactly on a boundary, and a separate outcome if no IPO occurs by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI's market capitalization at market close on its first day of trading falls within the $500B to $750B range, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If the valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization falls outside this range on IPO day. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026'. If trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session applies; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price is used. Resolution is decided by the primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest date and time for an IPO to occur before resolving to the fallback outcome
Resolution source
The primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.