Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market outlines a clear formula for calculating market capitalization using the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price on the initial trading day. The primary determination relies on the official listing page of the primary exchange where OpenAI lists, with an unspecified reliable source serving as a secondary backup if data is missing. Clear rules handle trading interruptions and circuit breakers, and an explicit cutoff date of December 31, 2026, handles the scenario where no initial public offering takes place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI's market capitalization is below $500B at the close of its initial public offering day. The market features a specific alternative resolution outcome if OpenAI does not conduct an IPO by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by the deadline and its market capitalization is less than $500B at market close on its first trading day. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on that day. If the value falls exactly on the threshold between brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization is $500B or higher. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used, or the next trading day with an official closing price if none is published. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Market resolves to a specific fallback if no IPO occurs by this time
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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