Will ERC win the most seats in Lleida in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for determining the winning party in the constituency of Lleida.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for determining the winning party in the constituency of Lleida. Seats are explicitly attributed based on official electoral lists, and the market includes clear definitions for party coalitions as well as a comprehensive tie-breaking hierarchy (seats won, followed by valid vote totals, followed by alphabetical order). Official election results from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serve as the final resolving source in case of ambiguity, and an ample longstop date of November 30, 2027, prevents early timeout issues.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
32%
chance▼ −4.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Lleida as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Lleida, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Lleida, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) finishes first in seats won in the Lleida constituency during the 2026 Spanish general election, with ties broken by Lleida vote count and then alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ERC finishes in the highest ranking position for seats won in the constituency of Lleida. ERC includes joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia, and seats are attributed strictly by the electoral list rather than individual candidate membership or subsequent parliamentary alignments. The market resolves to No if another party or list finishes in the top position based on Lleida seats. Ties are broken first by the total valid votes received in Lleida, and next by the alphabetical order of the party names. The market resolves to Other if definitive election results are not known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·