Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how vote share is calculated: valid votes received by lists attributed to Vox divided by total valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how vote share is calculated: valid votes received by lists attributed to Vox divided by total valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies. Explicit attribution rules are provided for electoral lists, ignoring subsequent endorsements or coalition shifts. While primary resolution references a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's official election results site as the definitive source in case of ambiguity. There is also a standard long-stop date of November 30, 2027, resolving to the lowest bracket if results are not definitively known.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
7%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by Vox. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by the lists attributed to Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Spanish political party Vox will receive 22% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies in the 2026 Spanish general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vox receives 22% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Vote share is calculated as total valid votes for lists attributed to Vox divided by total valid votes cast in the official results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves No if Vox receives less than 22% of the vote. If results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior deciding in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or solely the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·