Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed criteria for calculating vote share and explicitly define which regional lists count toward PSOE, such as PSC in Catalonia, while excluding informal coalitions.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed criteria for calculating vote share and explicitly define which regional lists count toward PSOE, such as PSC in Catalonia, while excluding informal coalitions. However, participants should be aware of two notable mechanics. First, resolution primary reliance is placed on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official Ministry of the Interior database acting only as a fallback if ambiguity arises. Second, there are specific tie-breaking and timeout clauses: if the percentage lands exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher bracket, and if definitive results are delayed past November 30, 2027, the market defaults to resolving to the lowest bracket rather than canceling or using provisional data.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
28%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by the lists attributed to PSOE divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will receive between 26% and 28% of the valid votes in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain scheduled for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official percentage of valid votes cast for PSOE lists (including PSC lists in Catalonia) falls within the 26% to 28% bracket. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the vote share falls outside this bracket. If election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive source in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as the fallback in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·