Will Podemos win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish specific attribution mechanics that may diverge from how individual politicians align.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish specific attribution mechanics that may diverge from how individual politicians align. Only seats won by lists presented by Podemos entirely on its own will count toward its total; joint lists such as ERC-Podem in Catalonia explicitly count toward ERC, and any broader coalition lists will not be credited to Podemos regardless of the candidates' underlying party affiliations. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official figures from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serving as the fallback source in case of ambiguity. There is also a long-stop deadline of November 30, 2027, resolving to the lowest bracket if results remain unknown.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
49%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Podemos in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Podemos will win exactly 0 seats in the Spanish Congress of Deputies in the 2026 general election, counting only lists presented by Podemos entirely on its own.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Podemos wins exactly 0 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 2026 Spanish general election. The market resolves to No if Podemos wins one or more seats. Only seats obtained on lists presented by Podemos on its own count toward its total; joint lists, coalitions, endorsements, or later affiliation changes are excluded. If definitive results are not known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serving as the deciding source in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as the fallback for ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·