Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the winning condition as the candidate winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly including any second-round runoff. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed directly by official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) if any uncertainty arises. A long resolution deadline through June 30, 2027, provides plenty of buffer for official certification and potential runoffs, with clear instructions on resolving to Other if no outcome is established by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Aldo Rebelo will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Aldo Rebelo wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the Brazilian presidential election.
- Result cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.