Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market follows standard election mechanics. It clearly accounts for potential runoff rounds and sets a generous resolution deadline well beyond the election date. Resolution relies primarily on consensus reporting, backed by an explicit fallback to official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the outcome of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution is based solely on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) of Brazil if there is ambiguity
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.