Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, accounting for potential second-round runoffs. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official certification from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) serving as the definitive backstop if any ambiguity arises. A clear longstop date of June 30, 2027 is provided, resolving to Other if an outcome is not established by then. The rules are direct and leave minimal room for surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, taking into account any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the outcome of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If any ambiguity arises, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election scheduled date: — The presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.