US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes Russian diesel fuel and physical delivery to the United States, explicitly excluding fuel carried for a vessel's own use, goods held in bond, or in-transit cargo.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes Russian diesel fuel and physical delivery to the United States, explicitly excluding fuel carried for a vessel's own use, goods held in bond, or in-transit cargo. However, the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official customs or shipping registry to verify delivery and tie the shipment to the specific political agreement or license. Determining whether media coverage establishes such a consensus requires significant judgment from the resolver.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
10%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States physically imports Russian-origin diesel fuel under the October 9, 2026 bilateral agreement or General License 135 by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russian-origin diesel fuel is physically delivered to a US port or terrestrial territory for domestic commercial or government use between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The import must be authorized under General License 135 (or a successor authorization) or reported as made under the October 9, 2026 agreement (or a successor arrangement). Fuel for a vessel's own use, held in bond for re-export, or in transit does not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·