Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?
Current price
13.5¢
Implied probability 13.5%
$42.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that acting or interim appointments do not trigger resolution and that an announcement locks in resolution even if the nominee later withdraws. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the White House and Donald Trump, but allows fallback to a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some evaluator discretion. The main ambiguity involves the reference to replacing 'Katie Zacharia', which appears to be a typo or inaccurate placeholder for the actual incumbent, potentially causing confusion if interpreted strictly rather than tracking the real-world officeholder.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Scott Jennings will be announced as the next White House Press Secretary replacing Katie Zacharia by the end of 2027. It includes an "Other" resolution condition if no replacement is selected or the role is abolished.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Scott Jennings is announced by the White House as the pick to replace Katie Zacharia as White House Press Secretary by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, excluding acting or interim announcements. Subsequent withdrawals or replacements after a qualifying announcement do not change the outcome. The market resolves to No if another specific permanent individual is announced for the role. The market resolves to Other if no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia or if the role is abolished by the deadline. The outcome is decided by official information from the White House and Donald Trump, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for a qualifying replacement announcement
Resolution source
Official information from the White House and Donald Trump, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.