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PoliticsCloses · in 16 days$10.5K volumePart of: 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30? →

Another candidate is the 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise, highly objective criteria for determining the winner.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise, highly objective criteria for determining the winner. Resolution relies directly on a named aggregator page (PredictionMarketOdds.com) and specifies the exact metric (Odds of Happening), precision level, and timestamp (12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026). Clear, deterministic procedures are defined for handling missing data, technical errors, delays, and ties (including historical lookback and alphabetical fallback), leaving virtually no room for subjective decider discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

90%

chance

▲ +9.35 pts · 24h

Yes90¢
No10¢
Other (including Ossof) · Yes · 1MO 4.3 H 90.7 L 2.2 C 90.4+86.1 (+2002.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 20:10 UTC

The market rose from 74% to 85% as related outcomes repriced together, with odds for Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both declining as a likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 54% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 18 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Marco Rubio (down), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-candidate.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Market explained

This market measures whether another candidate holds the highest odds value in the specified 2028 presidential election tracker on November 30, 2026. Resolution is based on an aggregated hourly odds listing rather than a single betting exchange.

How it resolves

The market resolves to a candidate option if that option has the highest hourly odds value in the specified listing for the time window ending at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. The market resolves to Other if the option with the highest hourly odds value is not a listed outcome, or if the underlying market is officially decided early in favor of an unlisted outcome. Ties are broken by the higher value in the most recent earlier window where values differed, and then alphabetically. PredictionMarketOdds.com decides the outcome based on its published hourly odds values.

Resolution source

PredictionMarketOdds.com

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·