Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.05¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$2.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules are straightforward and leave minimal room for ambiguity or dispute. The market specifies a precise data feed and metric: the final high price of any one-minute candle on the Binance BTC/USDT pair. A single, direct web source is provided, and the rules explicitly state that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not count. The market resolves immediately if the target threshold of $150,000 is met at any point prior to the cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and to negative otherwise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of at least $150,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends solely on 1-minute candle price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price equal to or greater than $150,000 by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if the price threshold is not reached by this deadline. Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT trading pair is the sole deciding source. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.
Key dates
- End date: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for Bitcoin to reach $150,000
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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