Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
Current price
45.5¢
Implied probability 45.5%
Volume not captured · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution based on the final score of the scheduled NBA game. A victory by 2 or more points resolves to the Timberwolves, while any other outcome—including a tie or smaller margin—resolves to the Heat. The market includes standard, unambiguous provisions for postponements and outright cancellations, presenting minimal ambiguity or unexpected terms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Timberwolves" if the Timberwolves win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures the point spread outcome of an NBA game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Miami Heat, specifically whether the Timberwolves win by at least 2 points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Timberwolves if the Timberwolves win the game by 2 or more points. The market resolves to Heat if the Timberwolves do not win by at least 2 points, which includes a win by 1 point, a Heat victory, or a tie. The market resolves 50-50 if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. The rules do not specify a deciding source.
Key dates
- Scheduled game date and time: — The scheduled start time for the NBA game.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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