PolymarketCloses · in 1 dayPart of Bitcoin above ___ on October 21? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?

Current price

12.5¢

−1¢ · 24h

Implied probability 12.5%
$28.5K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 11.5–33.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The resolution rules are straightforward and leave minimal room for interpretation. The market resolves strictly based on a specific, named exchange and trading pair (Binance BTC/USDT) using a precise time metric: the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 21. The source URL and exact chart settings required to check the closing price are provided, eliminating decider discretion and timing ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $27.8K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢17:4601:4509:4317:41
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢Oct 18Oct 18Oct 19Oct 19
10¢15¢20¢25¢Oct 18Oct 19Oct 19Oct 19

Why it moved

Up 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 20% to 31% as Bitcoin increased by 0.51% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching the $84,000 threshold more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.5% in the move hour, +0.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $84,000 at a specific minute on October 21, 2026. Resolution is tied strictly to the BTC/USDT pair on Binance rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 21, 2026, has a final Close price strictly greater than $84,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $84,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source. Resolution is determined strictly by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, excluding other exchanges and trading pairs.

Key dates

  • Target evaluation time: — 12:00 PM ET (noon)

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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