Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 21?

Current price

59¢

+4¢ · 24h

Implied probability 59%
$29.3K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 32.5–72.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is determined by a specific named source, Binance, using the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at precisely 12:00 PM ET on October 21. Thresholds, timezone, exact URL, and chart settings are clearly stated with no room for subjective interpretation or source discretion.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $27.7K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 1 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 21 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 43% to 69% as Bitcoin climbed 0.67% on Binance during the hour, moving closer to the $82,000 threshold and increasing the likelihood of closing above it.

Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.3% over 24 hours.
Closes 2 days after the move hour.
5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 5 in the same direction. Largest: 80,000 (up), 84,000 (up), 78,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 07:20 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 14, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $82,000 on October 21, specifically tracking the Binance BTC/USDT pair rather than prices from other exchanges or pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 21 has a final Close price strictly higher than $82,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or below $82,000. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data decides the outcome, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are excluded. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source.

Key dates

Observation time: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM (UTC−4) — Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 02:34 UTC

Community forecast

Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.