Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the vote share is calculated: dividing the valid votes attributed to PP and Vox by the total valid votes cast in the Congress of Deputies election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the vote share is calculated: dividing the valid votes attributed to PP and Vox by the total valid votes cast in the Congress of Deputies election. Strict boundaries are set for party designations, explicitly excluding third-party coalition votes. While resolution primarily references a consensus of credible reporting, it designates the Spanish Ministry of the Interior official election portal as the binding fallback in case of ambiguity. There is also a clear long-stop date of November 30, 2027, resolving to No if results remain unknown.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
40%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox receive a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to PP or Vox, including under any regional designation of either party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, or coalition agreements. The combined vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by PP and Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the People's Party (PP) and Vox will collectively secure at least 50% of the valid votes in the Spanish Congress of Deputies election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the People's Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Only votes officially attributed to PP or Vox (including regional designations) count; votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count regardless of endorsements or coalitions. The combined vote share equals their total valid votes divided by total valid votes cast. The market resolves to No if they receive less than 50% of the valid votes, or if the election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serving as the deciding source in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (infoelectoral.interior.gob.es) in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·