Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Anthropic by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying allegation, requiring a definitive statement of direction, control, sponsorship, or acting on behalf of Anthropic, while explicitly excluding mere speculation, contact, or association.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying allegation, requiring a definitive statement of direction, control, sponsorship, or acting on behalf of Anthropic, while explicitly excluding mere speculation, contact, or association. Resolution sources are restricted to official U.S. federal government bodies (such as the DOJ and FBI) and official statements from OpenAI. An explicit deadline with a specific time zone is provided, and the rule specifies that subsequent retractions do not invalidate a qualifying allegation once made.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Market explained
This market measures whether official statements or documents from the U.S. federal government or OpenAI definitively accuse Abdulrahman Alfozan of acting on behalf of Anthropic in connection with his recording incident at OpenAI.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of Anthropic (or its subsidiaries) in connection with the audio recording incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and official on-the-record statements from OpenAI or U.S. federal agencies like the DOJ or FBI. Merely speculating, suggesting ties, or describing contact or association does not qualify. Once made, subsequent retractions do not disqualify a Yes outcome. The market resolves to No if no qualifying allegation is made by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·