Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?
Last captured price
97.55¢
+4.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.55%
$21.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has very precise resolution criteria and minimal operational ambiguity. It defines an exact data point from a single named source: the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 20. The target threshold ($78,000) and measurement metric (the final Close price) are explicitly specified, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or competing interpretations from other exchanges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin is above $78,000 on October 20. Resolution is tied specifically to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at noon ET rather than prices from other exchanges or trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 20 has a final Close price strictly higher than $78,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $78,000. The outcome is determined exclusively by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, with price precision determined by the source's decimal places.
Key dates
- Measurement time: — The 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET determines the final price.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close price
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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