Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20?
Last captured price
98.7¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.7%
$17K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has very specific and objective resolution rules. It identifies the exact resolution source (the Binance BTC/USDT spot pair), the specific chart view (1-minute candle), the precise metric (final Close price), and the exact timestamp (12:00 PM ET on October 20). There is minimal decider discretion and no complex exception clauses, meaning the outcome relies entirely on a single verifiable data point.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $76,000 on October 20. It relies strictly on the 1-minute candle close price for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance at noon ET, rather than any other exchange or trading pair.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 20 has a final Close price strictly higher than $76,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or below $76,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by Binance. Resolution is determined solely using data from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart.
Key dates
- Measurement time: — The close of the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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