Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 20?
Last captured price
99.05¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.05%
$14.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has very specific and objective resolution criteria. It identifies an exact trading pair, exchange, and time interval (the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 20). The source is explicitly named with a direct URL and instructions on which data point to reference. There are no discretionary elements, backup sources, or unusual exception clauses that would surprise a participant.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price is above $74,000 at a specific minute on October 20, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on a single 1-minute candle on Binance rather than an average price or other exchanges.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on October 20, 2026, has a final Close price strictly higher than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price at that time is equal to or less than $74,000. Price precision is determined by the decimal places provided by the source. The resolution is decided by Binance BTC/USDT data with 1m candles selected, excluding other exchanges or trading pairs.
Key dates
- Target candle close: — Candle closing at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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