Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium4 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting to determine whether physical damage occurred and whether it is attributable to Iran or a listed proxy.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting to determine whether physical damage occurred and whether it is attributable to Iran or a listed proxy. Establishing attribution and intent for undersea infrastructure damage is notoriously difficult, and the decider has significant latitude to weigh conflicting reports. The rules include specific edge-case mechanics: cyberattacks do not count, attempted sabotage without verified physical damage resolves negatively, but damage caused indirectly by an attack on a vessel does qualify. There is also a delay clause allowing the market to remain open past the December 31 deadline for up to three calendar days following an initial report to evaluate conflicting attribution.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance▲ +3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran or a designated Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables before the end of December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying proxies include organizations directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis (Ansar Allah), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. The damage must be deliberate or result from a deliberate attack, including attacks on vessels. Cyber attacks and attempted attacks without damage do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by credible reporting. If reports conflict, the market remains open for up to 3 calendar days after first reporting before adjudicating based on the totality of available information.
Resolution source
Credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·