Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how turnout is calculated using total votes cast divided by total registered voters for the Congress of Deputies, pointing directly to official Spanish government sources and historical precedent in the official state gazette.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how turnout is calculated using total votes cast divided by total registered voters for the Congress of Deputies, pointing directly to official Spanish government sources and historical precedent in the official state gazette. The only notable operational rule is a timeout provision that resolves to the lowest bracket if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, along with standard fallback language permitting credible reporting if official results are unavailable. Overall, resolution hinges on concrete official data with very little ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
39%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of registered voters (electores). (see 2023 example: https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2023/09/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-18907.pdf) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Spanish government, including the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Market explained
This market measures whether official voter turnout in the 2026 Spanish general election for the Congress of Deputies reaches 70% or higher, defined as total votes cast divided by total registered voters.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the official voter turnout rate for the Congress of Deputies in the 2026 Spanish general election, calculated as total votes cast (votantes) divided by registered voters (electores). The market resolves Yes if voter turnout is 70% or higher. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to the lowest bracket if election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official election results from the Spanish government, including the Ministry of the Interior, or a consensus of credible reporting if official results are unavailable.
Resolution source
Official election results reported by the Spanish government, including the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·