Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
33.5¢
Implied probability 33.5%
$1.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate finishes with the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Official figures from the French Ministry of the Interior serve as the ultimate determining authority if reporting consensus is unclear. A straightforward alphabetical tie-breaker is defined, and there is a generous resolution cutoff date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon will finish in second place by valid vote count in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the second-most valid votes in the first round of the election. The market resolves to No if another candidate occupies that position. Candidates are ranked primarily by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of their listed full names. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with French Government Ministry of the Interior official results serving as the sole authority in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- First round election date: — Scheduled date of the first round of the French presidential election.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Deadline for election results before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
French Government Ministry of the Interior, or a consensus of credible reporting
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