Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution: the People's Party and Vox must win a combined total of at least 176 of the 350 seats in the Spanish Congress of Deputies.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution: the People's Party and Vox must win a combined total of at least 176 of the 350 seats in the Spanish Congress of Deputies. Explicit definitions govern how regional designations and coalition candidates are attributed to the relevant parties, excluding post-election agreements or party switches. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior named as the decisive backup authority in case of ambiguity. A long backstop deadline of November 30, 2027, prevents early timeout issues unless the election is cancelled or indefinitely delayed, resolving to No in that scenario.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
91%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the People's Party (PP) and Vox will win a combined absolute majority in the Spanish Congress of Deputies in the next general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the People's Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of at least 176 seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Regional designations count toward the listed party, but in a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the party on election day count. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary groups do not count. The market resolves to No if they win fewer than 176 combined seats, or if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Spanish Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·