Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Last captured price
99.95¢
Implied probability 99.95%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines resolution outcomes based on the winner of the specified baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians. Postponement rules explicitly keep the market open until completion, and full cancellations or ties resolve evenly at 50-50. The official final statistics from the governing body serve as the primary source, with consensus reporting only permitted as a fallback if official results are delayed beyond 24 hours.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This event refers to Game 5 of the ALCS originally scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on October 17, 2026. This game has been rescheduled to October 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Please refer to mlb.com for the latest start time information. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for October 18 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures the winner of Game 5 of the 2026 ALCS between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians. Notably, the game was rescheduled from October 17, 2026, to October 18, 2026, and resolves 50-50 if canceled without a make-up or ending in a tie.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Tampa Bay Rays if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. The market resolves to Cleveland Guardians if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. The market resolves 50-50 if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, or if it ends in a tie. If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. Resolution is decided by the official final statistics from the governing body or event organizers, or by a consensus of credible reporting if official stats are not published within 24 hours of completion.
Key dates
- Original scheduled game date: — Originally scheduled for 8:00 PM ET
- Rescheduled game date: — Rescheduled start time of 5:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Official final statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers (or a consensus of credible reporting if not published within 24 hours)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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