Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how seats are counted, breaking down coalitions to individual party affiliations as registered with the official electoral authority (Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how seats are counted, breaking down coalitions to individual party affiliations as registered with the official electoral authority (Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí). Comprehensive tie-breaking procedures (proportional representation vote totals followed by alphabetical order) and a definitive backstop date are established. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a named official electoral authority as the binding source in case of ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
55%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 27 members of the Congress of the State of San Luis Potosí are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of San Luis Potosí as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of San Luis Potosí and Mexico, including the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí (https://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) will win the greatest number of seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí State Congress election, including specific tie-breaking and coalition seat attribution rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if PVEM occupies the highest finishing position among all political parties based on seats won in the June 6, 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election. Seats are attributed based on official registrations per deputy, with coalition seats assigned to individual parties per registered agreements, and later affiliation changes disregarded. If parties tie on seats, the tie is broken by the proportional representation vote total, and then by alphabetical order. The market resolves No if another party finishes highest. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or officially by the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí and Mexican government results.
Resolution source
Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·