Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for resolving this market.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for resolving this market. Outcomes are based on official election results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango. Specific procedures govern coalition seat allocation, ensuring seats belong to individual parties rather than coalitions. Tie-breaking mechanisms are explicitly defined in order of proportional representation vote totals and alphabetical order, and a definitive longstop date resolves the market if results are delayed.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
33%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 25 members of the Congress of the State of Durango are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Durango as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Durango and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango (https://www.iepcdurango.mx/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will win the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election. Resolution relies on specific tie-breaking rules and individual party allocations within coalitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the party ranking highest based on seats won in the June 6, 2027 Durango legislative election. District seats won by a coalition count toward the individual party to which the candidate is assigned under the registered coalition agreement, not the coalition as a whole. Ties in seat count are broken first by total valid proportional representation votes, then by alphabetical order. Later party-switching is ignored. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by credible reporting consensus, or officially by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango.
Resolution source
Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Durango
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·