Will Liberal–National win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how seats are counted for the Liberal-National Coalition in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, explicitly bundling both the Liberal Party and the Nationals together.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how seats are counted for the Liberal-National Coalition in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, explicitly bundling both the Liberal Party and the Nationals together. The ranking system is well-defined, including unambiguous tie-breaking criteria based first on valid first-preference votes and then on alphabetical order. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, an official fallback is explicitly designated to the NSW Electoral Commission. A four-month buffer between the scheduled March 2027 election and the July 31, 2027 deadline provides adequate time for final seat declarations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
25%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (New South Wales' lower house) as a result of the next New South Wales state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the New South Wales government, specifically the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC) (https://elections.nsw.gov.au/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Liberal–National Coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly at the next New South Wales state election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Liberal–National Coalition finishes in third place based on total Legislative Assembly seats won in the next New South Wales state election. Liberal–National includes combined seats and first-preference votes from both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of post-election parliamentary coalition behavior. Ties are broken first by total valid first-preference votes, and then by alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if Liberal–National does not finish in third place. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·