Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
Current price
39.5¢
Implied probability 39.5%
$127 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear, standard sports spread mechanics. It resolves to Real Madrid CF if they win by 3 or more goals, and otherwise resolves to RB Leipzig. Outcome evaluation is explicitly restricted to regular time plus stoppage time (90 minutes plus extra time excluded). The resolution source is explicitly defined as uefa.com, with a clear fallback order (Flashscore, Sofascore, then credible consensus) if the primary source does not report within two hours. Standard provisions for postponements and cancellations are clearly outlined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 21 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RB Leipzig". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Real Madrid CF will defeat RB Leipzig by at least 3 goals in their scheduled UEFA Champions League match.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Real Madrid CF if Real Madrid CF wins the game by 3 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, the market resolves to RB Leipzig. If the game is canceled entirely without a make-up game, or if no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, the market resolves 50-50. If postponed, it remains open until completed. Resolution is decided using the official final score published on uefa.com, with fallbacks to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting if official statistics are delayed.
Key dates
- Match date and time: — Scheduled kickoff time (3:00 PM ET).
Resolution source
uefa.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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